摘 要:发输电系统的概率安全性评估,是当前电力系统可靠性研究的学术问题前沿之一。文中提出了基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的发输电系统安全性评估的基本框架,并对安全性指标体系、基本评估算法等进行了详细论述。该框架借鉴了充裕度评估中比较成熟的技术,并将充裕度和安全性统一在同一个评估框架中。最后,对IEEE-RTS79进行了测试计算,验证了评估算法的有效性。
关键词:发输电系统;概率安全性评估;蒙特卡罗模拟法
STUDY ON BASIC FRAMEWORK OF PROBABILISTIC SECURITY EVALUATION OF COMPOSITE GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS
ABSTRACT: Probabilistic security evaluation (PSE) of composite generation and transmission systems is one of academic frontier of the research on power system reliability. Basic frame of PSE of composite generation and transmission systems including reliability indices, component models and evaluation algorithms is put forward in detail. A Monte-Carlo simulation method based framework is developed, and absorbing comparatively mature technique applied in adequacy assessment. The adequacy and security are integrated in a same assessment frame. At last, the proposed method is applied to the IEEE-RTS79 system.
KEY WORDS: Composite generation and transmission systems;Probabilistic security evaluation;Monte-Carlo simulation method
式中 TN为系统处于正常状态下的模拟抽样持续时间;T为总模拟时间。
也可以类似地得到PA、PE及PEE的定义式。
由于正常状态和警戒状态难以区分,故本文将其合并在一起,定义为系统可接受运行状态;将紧急状态和极端紧急状态合并在一起,定义为系统不可接受运行状态,或称系统状态风险指标(Composite System Operating State Risk Index,CSOSRI),即